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Ukraine Russian Tanks - It appears that Ukraine is not the only country that Russia has been planning to invade in recent years. In the summer of 2020, according to information released by the military intelligence service of Ukraine, Russia is believed to have drawn up a detailed plan to invade and occupy Belarus.

On April 19, the General Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine announced: "After the manipulation of the presidential elections in Belarus, the Russian Federation developed a plan to invade and suppress public protests." A secret Russian military document outlining the reasons and plans for the invasion of Belarus.

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The documentary noted the "tense" situation in Belarus following the presidential election on 9 August 2020. It cited the "subversive activities" of exiled Lithuanian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanuskaya and claimed that a "massive information campaign" was underway to build consensus for violent regime change in Belarus. If this is not prevented, Russia may be drawn into an all-out war with NATO, the document says.

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The document shows a "plan for rearranging the formations and military units of the First Tank Army near the mission" for the invasion of Belarus. According to the plan, the soldiers will be deployed "under the guise of participating in a joint exercise with the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus."

It was not possible to independently verify the veracity of the information published by Ukraine. If accurate, Ukrainian intelligence reports indicate that a full-scale invasion of Belarus in the summer of 2020 was a real possibility, two years before a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Given the strained state of relations between Moscow and Minsk ahead of the Belarusian presidential election in August 2020, it makes sense that Russia is planning an invasion of Belarus. Unlike today's close strategic alliance between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, 2019 and the first half of 2020 saw significant strain in the relationship.

Faced with sanctions and a struggling economy, Putin has cut Russian subsidies and economic aid to Belarus. Moscow has also pressured Belarus to make a number of concessions, such as hosting a new Russian military base on its territory, deepening the integration of the country's armed forces, and adopting a renewed economic integration project that would effectively end Belarusian sovereignty.

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Lukashenko, on the other hand, resisted these attempts and tried to restore Minsk's relations with the West. In early 2020, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Belarus to "restore" strained relations with the country.

In a meeting with then-Belarusian Foreign Minister Uladzimer Makey, Pompeo said: “The United States wants to help Belarus create its own independent country. Our energy producers are ready to supply you with 100 percent of the oil you need at a competitive price. Your nation should not be forced to depend on one partner for your prosperity or security.”

At the time, there were indications that Russia's GRU military intelligence and its foreign intelligence service, the SVR, were trying to bring Lukashenko closer to the West in an effort to preserve Belarus' independence.

In the last two years, the geopolitical situation has changed dramatically in favor of Moscow. Lukashenko's brutal crackdowns on the opposition and his estrangement from the West after the August 2020 Belarusian presidential election led to increased dependence on the Kremlin. This appears to have eliminated the need for a massive Russian invasion of Belarus.

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Putin got everything he wanted in Belarus without firing a shot. Lukashenko has full faith in the Kremlin, which allowed Russia to break free from the "soft annexation" of the country. Belarus became a de facto extension of Russia's Western Military District, and Moscow was able to expand its economic and political footprints in the country.

Belarus is also drawn into Putin's war in Ukraine. Although Minsk has not yet sent troops to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenko has allowed Russia to use Belarus as a staging area for Russian troops and Putin to launch airstrikes on Ukrainian cities from Belarusian territory.

This supporting role in the conflict raised concerns that Russia's hegemonic position in Belarus could be threatened. Public opinion in Belarus is strongly against the war in Ukraine, and there are attempts to prevent the passage of Russian troops by sabotaging the railway network there. Meanwhile, hundreds of Belarusians joined volunteer battalions fighting on the side of Ukraine. As the war drags on, the likelihood of internal instability in Belarus may increase significantly.

Putin is currently drowning in Ukraine. However, if public opposition to Belarus' invasion of Ukraine continues to grow and Russia threatens to undermine its influence, it may still turn its attention to a full military occupation of Belarus. Judging by recent Ukrainian statements, plans for such an operation may already exist.

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Brian Whitmore is a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, an assistant professor at the University of Texas at Arlington, and host of The Power Vertical podcast.

BelarusAlert March 30, 2022 Hundreds of Belarusians join Ukraine's fight against Russian imperialism Brian Whitmore Brian Whitmore Hundreds of Belarusians have volunteered to fight for Ukraine in the war against Putin's Russia, as anti-imperialist forces in the former USSR seek to undo the Kremlin's authoritarian influence.

BelarusAlert March 29, 2022 Alesia Rudnik Concerned in Belarus about the country's role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is pushing Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to invade Ukraine, but is unpopular among Belarusians who fear direct involvement in the war would be disastrous . aftermath.

BelarusAlert March 22, 2022 Belarusians Sabotage Vladimir Putin's Plans to Go to War in Ukraine Brian Whitmore As Vladimir Putin pressures Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to join Russia's invasion of Ukraine, ordinary Belarusians are acting to disrupt hostilities and prevent Russian troops from entering to Ukraine. .

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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of The Atlantic Council, its staff, or their supporters.

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The Eurasian Center's mission is to expand transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values ​​and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

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Ukraine's Zelenskyy: Russian Advance 'stopped In Most Directions'

Share All Stock Options: Putin Says He Won't Invade Ukraine Here is a video of Putin's tanks invading Ukraine.

On Tuesday, days after Russian self-propelled artillery launched what Vladimir Putin said was an apparent hostile attack on eastern Ukraine, someone captured video of heavy tanks barreling near a rebel-held town in eastern Ukraine. the city of Luhansk. While they appear to suspect Russian tanks sent as part of the offensive, Moscow and pro-Russian rebels insist the Ukrainian military has stolen or abandoned any heavy equipment.

But now military experts have looked at the video and said at least one of the tanks could only be from the Russian military, ending the question of whether it was indeed Russian military forces.

Joseph Dempsey, an expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the BBC that one of the tanks is called the T-72VM, the modern version of which is identified by the special "Kontakt-5" armor and is available in Russia. It doesn't scale, but it's used a lot in its army. This is a new story that shows not only that Russia is on the offensive, but that it is increasingly embarrassed about it.

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Dempsey told the BBC: "The Soviet-era tanks operated by the separatists have so far indicated they could be sourced from Ukraine, providing a level of deniability to any suspected third-party suppliers." That degree of convincing denial is now gone.

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