Ukraine Russia Tanks - Apparently, Ukraine is not the only country that has planned to attack Russia in recent years. In the summer of 2020, according to information published by Ukraine's military intelligence agency, Russia is accused of making elaborate plans to invade Belarus.
The spokesman for Ukraine's Defense Ministry said on April 19 that "the Russian Federation has developed a plan to invade and suppress public protests after the presidential election fraud in Belarus." A secret Russian military document outlining the rationale and plans for the invasion of Belarus.
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The document highlights the "unsettled" situation in Belarus following the country's deeply flawed presidential election on August 9, 2020. It cited the "subversive activities" of exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya in Lithuania and accused a "massive information campaign" to build a consensus for violent regime change in Belarus. If this cannot be avoided, the document argues, Russia could be drawn into a full-scale war with NATO.
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The document stated that "the plan for the formation of army groups and military units is the first tank near the operation" for the invasion of Belarus. According to the plan, the army will perform its duties "under the participation of joint exercises with the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus."
The accuracy of the information disclosed by Ukraine cannot be independently verified. If correct, a full-scale invasion of Belarus could take place in the summer of 2020, less than two years before Russia invades Ukraine, Ukrainian intelligence says.
Russia's plan to invade Belarus is reasonable, given the current situation, the tension in relations between Moscow and Minsk ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for August 2020 in Belarus. In contrast to the current close strategic alliance between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, there will be significant strain in relations throughout 2019 and the first half of 2020.
Faced with sanctions and a struggling economy, Putin offered Russian subsidies and economic aid to Belarus. Moscow is pressuring Belarus to make a number of concessions, such as establishing new Russian military bases on its territory, deeply integrating the country's armed forces, and accepting an economic rehabilitation program that would effectively end Belarus' sovereignty.
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For his part, Lukashenka opposes these efforts and seeks to mend Minsk's relationship with the West. In early 2020, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Belarus in an effort to "normalize relations with this country".
In a meeting with Belarusian Foreign Minister Uladzimer Makei at the time, Mr. Pompeo said: The United States wants to help Belarus build its own sovereign state. Our energy producers are ready to provide you with 100 percent of the oil you need at competitive prices. Your nation must not be forced to depend on any partner for your prosperity or your security."
There were indications at the time that Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU, and the foreign intelligence service, the SVR, were alarmed by Lukashenka's efforts to preserve Belarus' independence by trying to bring the country closer to the West.
The geopolitical situation has changed significantly in the last 2 years, in favor of Moscow. Lukashenka's crackdown on dissent after Belarus's August 2020 presidential election and his scapegoating from the West have led to increased dependence on the Kremlin. This seems to have eliminated the need for a full Russian invasion of Belarus.
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Putin got everything he wanted in Belarus without firing a shot. Lukashenka is completely dependent on the Kremlin, which allows Russia to withdraw from the "soft grip". Belarus has become a de facto western military extension of Russia, enabling Moscow to expand its economic and political influence in the country.
Belarus is also caught up in Putin's war against Ukraine. While Minsk has yet to contribute militarily to Russia's offensive in Ukraine, Lukashenka has allowed Putin to use Belarus as a base for Russian troops and launch airstrikes against Ukrainian cities from Belarusian soil.
This supporting role in the conflict has raised concerns that it could threaten Russia's influential position in Belarus. Public opinion in Belarus strongly opposes the war in Ukraine and attempts to block the transit of Russian troops by destroying the country's railway network. Meanwhile, hundreds of Belarusians joined the volunteer army fighting on the Ukrainian side. As the war continues, the potential for domestic instability in Belarus may increase significantly.
At this time, Mr. Putin was stuck in Ukraine. However, he could once again turn his attention to an outright military takeover of Belarus if public opposition to Belarus' intervention in Ukraine's invasion continues to grow and threatens to undermine Russian influence. According to previous Ukrainian claims, plans for such an operation may exist
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Brian Whitmore is a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, associate professor at the University of Texas at Arlington, and host of The Power Vertical Podcast.
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